President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled Plan México this week. Her hour-long speech laid out an ambitious six-year agenda. The President promised to supercharge economic growth and push Mexico into the world’s top 10 economies. However, beneath the laudable aspirations and business friendly rhetoric, experts doubt the plan’s deliverability amid an unprecedented period of risk for Mexico.

Sheinbaum’s approach marks a clear break from former President López Obrador’s (AMLO) combative stance toward business. She promises collaboration. Her vision includes ramping up domestic manufacturing and raising investment to almost 30% of GDP. She wants to boost renewable energy and train 150,000 professionals in strategic sectors.

Sheinbaum also pushed for extending the USMCA trade agreement, saying “It is the only way we can compete with Asian markets,” in a pointed appeal to the incoming Trump administration.

Beneath the public unity, doubts run deep. Business leaders welcome the rhetoric but are privately sceptical about the feasibility. Many view the plan as little more than wishful thinking. Mexico may not grow even 1% in 2025, let alone enough to catapult it into the top 10 economies in six years.

Analyst Ana Lilia Moreno of México Evalúa shares the skepticism. She questions the timing of the announcement, given Donald Trump’s imminent return to power. Trump has pledged to slash US corporate taxes to 15% and prioritise re-shoring over nearshoring – a trend Mexico is banking on but which the Dallas Fed recently called “aspirational.”

“Companies have been very conservative about investing in Mexico,” Moreno says. The legal and regulatory uncertainty – stemming from the Morena Party’s constitutional reforms – doesn’t help. She points out that insecurity, along with the increasing costs of mitigating and insuring against it, further deter investment.

Energy infrastructure poses another major obstacle. Sheinbaum’s renewable energy goals require private sector cooperation. But Moreno doubts businesses will invest without clearer rules in place and fresh guarantees their permits will be honoured. That’s lacking right now. What’s more, key states like Querétaro lack sufficient energy for current needs. The state recently borrowed at a steep 19% interest rate to fund an expansion of its energy infrastructure which it won’t own, due to the federal government’s energy monopoly.

This week, trade Secretary Marcelo Ebrard celebrated a $5 billion investment by Amazon Web Services into Querétaro for a sprawling new data centre. But the energy demand from AWS requires reliable power. Lots of it. Last summer, 21 states experienced rolling blackouts. With a record deficit and heavy commitments to Pemex and expensive social programs, the government lacks resources to upgrade this infrastructure. States like Querétaro may be trying in earnest to fill the gap, but it comes with real fiscal risk. A report out this week from the Mexican risk consultancy EMPRA is blunt about the reality, stating “Mexico’s electricity system faces the risk of structural collapse this year.”

It all adds up to a lot of headwinds.

Still, Moreno sees promise in Sheinbaum’s efforts to ease credit for small and medium businesses and halve the time to start a business. These are long-standing hurdles for Mexico’s private sector. Addressing them would help the formal economy, but Moreno is clear even that won’t be a silver bullet.

Mexico is no longer competing with other developing countries for investment. Instead, its competing with US states like Texas, which has seen real growth in its manufacturing sector. In Texas starting a business takes days, insecurity isn’t an issue, and federal tax cuts could soon give it a further edge over Mexico. Moreno notes even “Mexican businesses are interested in investing [in Texas], because they have legal certainty there.”

Sheinbaum’s outreach shows good intentions. Her administration knows what it needs to be working toward. But the President’s announcement this week ignores the reality AMLO’s legacy saddles her with. The program also fails to acknowledge the fresh challenges coming once Trump takes office. But as one CEO of a major company in Mexico, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the conversation, tells The Mexico Brief, “We are about to face reality.”