Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum scored a big win this week. She got a month-long pause on Trump’s 25% tariffs. In exchange? Mexico sends 10,000 more troops to the border and boosts security cooperation. But Mexico’s military is already there. So, did Sheinbaum outplay Trump? A flood of memes on social media says yes. Some US commentators agree. But it’s more complicated.

Yes, Sheinbaum had a good week. Maybe the best of her presidency. She pushed back tariffs without the shrill theatrics Canada resorted to. She also effectively nudged the USMCA review forward a year early. Sheinbaum showed a steady hand amid the clamor. Business leaders in Mexico we spoke to are universally upbeat about the outcome.

But despite the optimism and the memes, we don’t fully know what she agreed to. Remember Remain in Mexico? Trump and AMLO struck that deal in secret. We didn’t learn about it until later. The phrase “increased security cooperation” in this new deal is similarly vague. Sheinbaum has much to gain from that vagueness.

An unprecedented US Air Force reconnaissance mission flew over the Gulf of California, skirting the state of Sinaloa this week. A day later, the US Navy warship USS Nimitz was spotted off Baja California’s coast. Are these coincidences? Unilateral moves made by the US? Or the first signs of increased US-Mexico security cooperation? We don’t know. If it’s the latter, Sheinbaum has agreed to much more than it seems.

Also, the threat of tariffs isn’t gone. That’s more uncertainty. Mexico’s business leaders may have inured themselves to that. After all, uncertainty is better than 25% tariffs. But it remains Sheinbaum’s biggest challenge. It forms the central question of her presidency: how does she maintain increased social spending while also reducing a historically large fiscal deficit? She’s no closer to an answer.

But Sheinbaum does have one clear advantage: Trump’s unfocused negotiating style. He links tariffs to everything: trade, migration, crime, and China. That gives Sheinbaum a vast menu of options to satisfy his demands. It also gives her cover to pursue difficult policies back home.

Here’s the truth: Mexico has a bigger migration problem than the US does. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, are moving through Mexico. It’s straining state capacity, challenging institutions, and feeding organized crime.

A former senior Mexican official familiar with the administration’s thinking put it bluntly: “If you take away Trump’s rhetoric, we actually agree on migration and fentanyl; organized crime is a threat to Mexico first, the US second. It’s a shared security crisis.”

Sheinbaum’s actions this week underline how much the two leaders need each other. Any commentary painting this week’s events as a grand gladiatorial clash misses the bigger picture. Trump’s rhetoric enables Sheinbaum to cast him as foil for the most difficult moves she makes without alienating her base. That includes harsh migration policies and breaking with AMLO’s disastrous “hugs not bullets” policy. The looming trade war also provides helpful cover for a Mexican economy which is likely heading for a recession this year. Similarly, Trump’s moves to dismantle US institutions have the effect of minimizing Sheinbaum’s continuing efforts at the same (just look at her reaction to the USAID fiasco). In exchange, Trump receives a series of PR wins to tout to his base of varying levels of significance for the US. What’s lost in this dysfunctional marriage of convenience, of course, is a joined up bilateral strategy to address both countries’ challenges in ways that provide long term solutions to root causes.

But Trump is fundamentally an agent of chaos. He’s motivated by his own self-interest and a reality TV star’s desire to keep the ratings up. This month, Donald Trump gave Claudia Sheinbaum lemons and she made lemonade. Sheinbaum will be hoping the lemonade stand stays open for business.