Mexico’s judiciary now serves many masters
by Jacques Coste.
Many analysts have argued that Mexico’s recent judicial elections removed the last check on presidential power because several candidates with clear connections or affinities with Morena won, and hence the Supreme Court justices will be aligned with the ruling party. But this is only part of the story. The scenario is even worse. Mexico’s judiciary will respond partially to the interests of the executive branch, but it will also respond to the objectives of different regional elites, such as local political leaders, businesspersons, law firms, and organized-crime groups.
The reason why so many analysts believe that Mexico’s judiciary will exclusively respond to the president’s wishes is that they are taking the PRI regime as a model. However, there are two problems with this assumption.
First, during the PRI regime, the Supreme Court - and the judicial system as a whole - wasn’t as subsumed into the power orbit of the executive branch as is generally thought. As historian Pablo Mijangos argues, while it is true that the post-revolutionary Supreme Court lent constitutional legitimacy to the actions of the sitting president, it is also true that the justices enjoyed broad autonomy when deciding the majority of cases, which did not clearly concern the executive branch.
In other words, during the PRI regime, the judiciary supported the hegemonic party in controversies directly linked to the interests of the sitting president. But the way judges resolved cases between common citizens depended on a combination of factors, such as the ideology and capabilities of the judges, money and power differentials between the parties involved, and relationships (or lack thereof) between the citizens and PRI members or government officials who could help them pressure the judges. This will be the case once again in Mexico - but with an additional layer of complexity. And this is where the second problem with the assumption that the president will control the entire judiciary comes in.
Many Mexicans won’t vote in Sunday’s judicial elections; will AMLO?
by David Agren.
Mexico holds judicial elections on Sunday, which will select nearly 900 judges – including supreme court justices – via popular vote. But the much anticipated elections are unfolding amid confusion, controversial candidates, and crushing disinterest – with voters paying scant attention and the ruling MORENA party marshalling voters in what was supposed to be a non-partisan vote. Then there’s the opposition boycott.
President Claudia Sheinbaum targeted the opposition throughout the week leading up to the June 1 vote. She jawboned them from the bully pulpit of her morning press conference. And she employed the familiar schoolyard taunt effectively used by her predecessor and populists the world over: I know you are but what am I?
“Who is more anti-democratic: the ones calling for everyone to elect the judiciary or the ones calling for not voting? Who is more democratic?” Sheinbaum said in the Wednesday mañanera. “The argument is very convoluted, isn’t it? If the president had wanted to pick the Supreme Court’s justices, we wouldn’t have ended up as we were before. Why all the fuss?”
Three points on Mexico’s judicial vote
by Luis Rubio.
Judicial reform reaches its critical moment this coming Sunday. After the constitutional reform was approved last September, this Sunday citizens will vote for judges, magistrates, and justices of the Supreme Court of Justice. There is no precedent in the world (with the small exception of Bolivia) where a country has undertaken an exercise of this nature. The requirements for someone to aspire to one of these positions were minimal and unrelated to the function they are to perform. In fact, the most important requirement was having been approved by a panel in which Morena had a majority in almost every case. However, this does not mean that Morena is (or acted as) a monolithic bloc; rather, everything indicates that the candidates for the various positions reflect the diversity of interests within Morena’s factions and some societal groups, including organized crime.
The main argument used to justify the election was that democracy means electing judges directly by the electorate. The logic behind this is a literal interpretation of democracy, as opposed to the traditional liberal definition, which includes checks and balances. Above all, the reform rejects the notion that the role of the judiciary is to interpret and enforce the law, and, in the case of the Supreme Court, to resolve “ties” between the other two branches of government — the executive and the legislative.
Three considerations about what lies ahead:
Claudia Sheinbaum’s terrible, no good, very bad week
by David Agren.
Claudia Sheinbaum has suffered perhaps the worst week of her administration – marked by the murders of two senior functionaries in the Mexico City government.
How bad was her week?
Over the weekend, the Cuauhtemoc, a Mexican Navy ship, crashed into the Brooklyn Bridge while on a global goodwill tour. The crash, which New York City officials say was caused by a mechanical failure, resulted in the deaths of Naval cadets, América Yamilet Sánchez, 20, and Adal Jair Maldonado, 23.
On Tuesday, Ximena Guzmán, personal secretary to mayor Clara Brugada, and José Muñoz, a government advisor, were killed in cold blood as they commuted on a busy thoroughfare. The suspect remains at large and no motive has been offered for the assassinations.
The day before in Guanajuato state, seven young people were killed when gunmen arriving in SUVs shot up a parish festival in the town of San Bartolo de los Berrios.
As new Ambassador arrives, what next for the US & Mexico?
by Gerónimo Gutiérrez.
Six months after President Claudia Sheinbaum's initial call with then President-elect Donald Trump, the state of US - Mexico relations remains something of a puzzle. On the surface, early exchanges between the two leaders suggested a cordial start: Trump publicly referred to Sheinbaum as an "intelligent lady he could do business with," while Sheinbaum described their conversations as "productive" and appreciated what she called his "respect for Mexico." Yet this initial goodwill has given way to a more confrontational tone in recent weeks, reflecting growing difficulties beneath the diplomatic pleasantries that challenge the foundation of Sheinbaum’s strategy.
On the early days of May, Sheinbaum confirmed that she had rejected her counterpart´s offer to use US troops to go after cartels in Mexican territory. Trump in turn opined that she was “so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk”. More recently, news reports in Mexico and the US have suggested that the US government intends cancel the visas and seize the US assets of Mexican politicians from the President’s party, allegedly due to links with drug trade and corruption. Raising the profile of these reports, the Governor of Baja California in the past days confirmed her visa was canceled, although she has alleged no wrongdoing and official information remains scant.
What was already a complex negotiation at the beginning of the year on trade (tariffs and USMCA review), security and immigration, has become more difficult with new irritants. As examples we can point to the case of water management of the shared river basins of the Colorado en Bravo rivers, or the decision by the United States Department of Agriculture to suspend all imports of live cattle due to phytosanitary concerns. In all areas of the relationship tensions seem to be mounting rather than receding. Perhaps the only exception is immigration, where migrant encounters along the border – a proxy used to measure illegal immigration – have drastically diminished in April to 12,035, from 179,737 the same month last year.
Baja California’s Governor loses US visa
by David Agren.
When US President Donald Trump alleged an “intolerable alliance” between drug cartels and the government of Mexico - made as he first unveiled tariffs on the country in January - Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum bitterly objected.
She branded the claims “slander,” and shone a spotlight back on the US. “If there’s a place that such an alliance exists it’s with US gunmakers, which sell high-power weapons to these criminal groups,” she said.
Sheinbaum later showed White House evidence for its narco-alliance claim, which featured a news story on former public security secretary Genaro García Luna – a common foil for Sheinbaum and her ruling Morena Party – being convicted in a US court of taking bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel. She used the White House including his case as proof that drug-cartel collusion was a thing of the past.
Mexico has become a strategic pawn without a voice
In the global game of power, some nations move, and others are moved.
Mexico, the world’s 13th largest economy and the United States’ top trading partner, should be a strategic powerhouse. It has all the credentials: geographic proximity to the world’s leading economy, rich natural resources, a youthful population, and an essential role in global supply chains. And yet, it remains politically paralyzed, its voice barely audible in global decision-making.
Why?
Because Mexico is not a player. It is being played.
While the United States and China engage in trade wars and strategic decoupling, Mexico tightens labor rules and enforces stricter origin standards — not by sovereign design, but to comply with demands from above. While fentanyl ravages U.S. cities, Mexico absorbs the blame, while the weapons that fuel its internal wars flow south from Texas and Arizona. And while the global South begins to awaken — through the expansion of BRICS, new development banks, and climate justice diplomacy — Mexico watches from the sidelines, reluctant to step beyond its assigned role.
If Trump didn’t exist, it would be necessary to invent him
by Jorge G. Castañeda.
Many years ago, in the French philosophy exams at the end of high school (the famous Baccalauréat), students were asked to write a long essay (three hours of writing) on Voltaire’s classic phrase: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” What did the 18th-century satirical philosopher mean? What reflections could that comment provoke regarding other beliefs about human existence?
Today, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum has surely considered a similar idea: “If Trump did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” The statement may seem paradoxical, as the current president of the United States has done nothing but cause intense headaches for many heads of state around the world. But he has also given a strong boost to many of the Mexican president’s peers: to Zelensky and Macron in popularity polls, to Carney and Albanese in recent elections, to Xi Jinping in China’s sui generis political system. Claudia Sheinbaum’s case is similar.
Indeed, every new front Trump opens in the relationship with Mexico becomes a powerful antidote to the growing challenges the Mexican ruling party, Morena, faces domestically. The fronts with Trump occur daily: fentanyl, methamphetamines, tomatoes, livestock, water in Tijuana, water in the Rio Grande, migration, tariffs, USMCA, China, and whatever else gets added. This without mentioning the disagreements that have not been made public but surely exist at some level: Cuba, Venezuela, and others.
Fernández Noroña: the chaos agent in charge of Mexico’s Senate
by David Agren.
Senate President Gerardo Fernández Noroña pulled up to a party event last Sunday in a swank SUV. The Institutional Revolutionary Party took notice.
“.@fernandeznorona talks like he was part of the people, acts like an authoritarian … but he loves living like a fifí.”
Fernández Noroña predictably exploded, unloading on the PRI with a hyperbolic tirade.
He called them, “A bunch of thieves,” then defended himself saying, “Everything I have I’ve earned through my work and effort. Not like you.” He continued with the usual righteous line that politicians in the ruling coalition take with their opponents, accusing the PRI of having “plundered the country,” and branding them, “Repressors, plunderers, and frauds, as well as traitors to the nation. And that’s putting it mildly.”
Fernández Noroña is what the Canadians might call a “shit disturber” – a person who has long caused mischief in Mexican politics and whose reputation for picking fights and flouting norms precedes him.
Gabbard’s comments undercut Sheinbaum’s resistance narrative
by David Agren.
A new intervention from US President Donald Trump’s camp is casting doubt on portrayals of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum standing up to Trump’s hardline immigration policies. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, praised Mexico’s role in stopping migrants before they reached the US border - but credited that action not to Sheinbaum’s resolve, but to pressure from Trump.
“The President of Mexico told me, sir, she turned around over a half a million people in Mexico before they ever reached our border,” Gabbard told Trump. “We should be counting those as deportations because they never even made it to the border because she turned them around because you forced her to. So those are all people that never even came here because they got the message because you were so aggressive.”
The comments raise questions about Sheinbaum’s efforts to portray herself as a defender of Mexican sovereignty, as she gains praise at home and abroad for her handling of Trump’s threats and demands.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s stoic diplomacy faces its limits
by Andrés Rozental.
Much has been written and said about how Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, has managed to avoid the kind of treatment Donald Trump has often reserved for countries with which he has grievances. Some analysts have compared her approach to that of former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who took a more combative stance. Trudeau responded to Trump’s provocations - like his comments about making Canada the 51st state and imposing tariffs on Canadian exports - with reciprocal actions and direct criticism. In contrast, Sheinbaum has never explicitly threatened retaliation. Nor has she directly confronted Trump on major bilateral issues such as migration and drug trafficking - topics Trump campaigned on and has made central to his administration.
Her relatively low-key approach to dealing with Trump, calling for patience and delay before responding to the US President’s constant assaults on Mexico, was seen by a majority of Mexicans, and many international pundits, as a model for how to “manage” a relationship with the author of The Art of the Deal.
Notwithstanding generalized applause for her stoicism and her high popularity, I believe it important to judge whether Sheinbaum’s strategy of accommodation has actually benefitted Mexico more than Chinese, European or Canadian reactions in dealing with Trump.